I just found out that Google publishes IPv6 traffic numbers for Google users, going back through 2008. It shows what you expect, traffic as a percentage has steadily increased, it’s consistent but not exponential. Right now Google averages about 14% IPv6 since January. But there’s a weird phenomenon that I can’t explain.
Because Google tracks this daily, the graph is pretty fine-grained. Since about 2012, the numbers show relatively big drop offs in IPv6 traffic as an overall percentage throughout the week. Oddly, this drop off exclusively occurs on the weekdays. With a few exceptions (for example the US election), traffic during the week is about 2-3% overall percentage points lower, about 25% of overall IPv6 traffic. It’s an IPv6 party on the weekend!
Maybe this has a lot to do with a lot of legacy business networking still using IPv4? Then over the weekend, with less traffic through these legacy systems, it ticks up? I think I would need to see this compared to overall traffic volume before I can say for use. Either way, it’s a little weird.
Thanks to Matthew Green for sharing this.
Weird pattern. IPv6 adoption seems to pulse upward on weekends. From https://t.co/jUzyhHKyIa pic.twitter.com/3sFPgcYoPD
— Matthew Green (@matthew_d_green) March 1, 2017
“It shows what you expect, traffic as a percentage has steadily increased, it’s consistent but not exponential.”
Jan. 2011 – about .25%
Jan. 2012 – about .5%
Jan. 2013 – about 1%
Jan. 2014 – about 2.5%
Jan. 2015 – about 5%
Jan. 2016 – about 8%
Jan. 2017 – about 15%
Actually, so far it appears to be about doubling every year. This seems to be exponential to me.
Exponential = x^y
Doubling every year = 2x
Seems linear to me.
I think you might want to check that … 2x would be
1y – 2%
…
5y – 10%
6y – 12%
Doubling every year is indeed exponential;
1y – 1%
2y – 2%
…
5y – 16%
6y – 32%
The weekday blues should be easy to explain. Every office I’ve worked at has IPv6 disabled; most residential ISPs have it turned on, as do many cellular carriers. If my experience is typical, it’s no surprise that fewer people are using IPv6 during business hours.
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